METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone
Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters.
Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan
divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
They sampled 9 percent more Democrats than Republicans. Pollsters are also failing to factor in the fact that primary turnout for the GOP was up 62 percent this year. Democratic turnout was down 21 percent.
Zero Hedge dissected the ABC poll a little further:
Meanwhile, we also pointed out that with huge variances in preference across demographics one can easily “rig” a poll by over indexing to one group vs. another. As a quick example, the ABC / WaPo poll found that Hillary enjoys a 79-point advantage over Trump with black voters. Therefore, even a small “oversample” of black voters of 5% could swing the overall poll by 3 full points. Moreover, the pollsters don’t provide data on the demographic mix of their polls which makes it impossible to “fact check” the bias…convenient.
I know a lot of people are screaming and crying about polls right now, which is why I want to take a moment to talk about them.
Lately, there have been polls done by a lot of different outfits. On top of that, there are all these ridiculous predictors like the Redskins rule and someone did an article about the predictions of a psychic.
For someone like me, these things can cause some stress we don’t need. However, they don’t bother me nearly as much as they seem to bother others.
The fact of the matter is this… predictors are manure. That’s sort of a given, and we won’t discuss them further.
Polls are borderline manure. There may be some truth in some of them. But in all honesty, the poll is going to lean the way the poll taker wants them to. A right leaning poll taker is going to find Trump ahead by a thousands miles, a left one will find Hillary ahead by the same amount.
Polls fluctuate so often that all that can really be gleaned from them is that people really can’t make up their damn minds. And we’re really, really fickle. The slightest little thing can swing these polls drastically. And if you are that fickle, especially this close to the election, you really need to re-evaluate yourself.
Also, the polls rarely cover a lot of ground. It seems the polls are usually analyzed based on the opinions of less than 1000 people in a country with millions of residents (according to WorldMeters.com, the US population is currently 324,872,853). Now, a lot is going to depend on the area these people lived in, and the type of people they polled. Myself, whenever I get polled, especially in person, I always say I am voting for Jill Stein. I have no intention of voting for her, by the way. But I always say I am going to because… well, let me be honest here.
We get a lot of scam phone calls at my house. Like, a ridiculous amount of scam calls. Businesses trying to sell very obviously phony services, someone calling from “Dell” about an error on the computers, the IRS scam, and yes… we have had fake poll takers who tried to get personal information. We’ve had a lot of real sketchy people come to the door claiming to be with the phone company or wanting to do a security analysis on the house. Sadly, they have really come out of the woodwork in the last 2 years or so. I share a home with my mother due to her disabilities. I’m not really a caretaker so much; I reach stuff on high shelves, lift heavy objects, cook meals, and do all the bending, because my mom has issues with all of that now. But you can easily find out that an elderly person lives in a home, and the elderly are prime victims for scams. It really picked up when my dad became ill, and even more so after he passed (by court order, we actually had to put in the newspaper that he had died, so it’s easy to discover).
So yeah, when I get calls or visits from poll takers, I am suspicious as hell. And the candidate you are supporting could tell someone with ill intent a lot about you. Think about it. There are no givens, but they get a list of possibles. A Hillary supporter is much more likely to have a more modern, more valuable car in the garage, like a hybrid or electric car. They are less likely to be armed. They are less likely to be trained by the military (remember, less likely does not mean not possibly). If their home has security, it is going to be basic. A Trump supporter is likely to be armed, but when not home, there are guns they may be able to steal. Depending on what the poll taker wants to know, they could find out if someone in the house is active military, and try to get out of them when they are not home (less people to fight with). They are likely to have a larger car in the garage, like an SUV or pickup truck, that could be used to carry out items in the home. This goes for someone supporting Johnson, too. Now, if you say Jill Stein, they assume you are a radical environmentalist, and probably don’t have much of value. You may be home less often, though. You may also have a hybrid or electric car, or at the very least, a very valuable bicycle (don’t laugh, you’d be amazed at what some bicycles are worth). You may have items from other countries that could valuable to collectors. You probably don’t have a dog. However, since you are probably very green in everything you do, you also probably don’t have diamonds or items worth a ton of money in the major markets where it is easier to sell. Your stuff might actually be valuable, but it would be harder to move.
Yes, this all an over analysis. I know that. But I know there are folks who have considered it, too. From all the parties. I really laid it out here in depth, but it’s normally a passing concern. And reason for some people to give a false vote to a poll taker. So Hillary’s numbers could be a lot higher than we think. So could Trump’s. Hell, maybe Jill Stein will take it in a surprise upset. I have no idea.
That is, however, the major point. We have no idea. And we won’t know until the votes are counted.